Belgium’s World Cup hopes hang by a thread, Opta’s numbers reveal

The Opta supercomputer has run 25,000 simulations of the 2026 World Cup and delivered a sobering verdict for Belgium. While the Red Devils edge out Senegal in the rankings, their path to a knockout-stage upset remains narrow. Belgium’s qualification for the last 16 under Rudi Garcia has drawn praise from former assistant Thierry Henry, who highlighted Leandro Trossard’s standout display against New Zealand. Trossard’s performance followed another strong showing against Iran, with the Arsenal forward delivering a masterclass in both matches. Yet the Opta projections paint a less optimistic picture. Despite topping their group, Belgium’s overall chances of progressing deep into the tournament remain slim, with the supercomputer favouring Senegal in their direct comparison.

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The shift in focus since Belgium’s opening matches is striking. Conversations have moved away from defensive concerns, a stark contrast to the criticism that dogged the team at the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024. Even Hugo Broos’ South Africa exited with a 1-0 defeat to Canada, leaving the Belgian coach with a commendable record despite the loss. Zeno Debast’s inclusion in the squad, despite never playing a minute due to injury, underscores his importance beyond his role as a player. Garcia’s decision to take the Sporting CP defender to the United States reflects his broader value to the team.

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Not everyone is convinced by Belgium’s progress. Anthony Vanden Borre and Silvio Proto have publicly questioned aspects of the campaign, while Garcia’s post-match outburst to certain media outlets after the New Zealand win caught many off guard. The French coach is known for his deliberate communication style, often speaking his mind without filter. The World Cup experience is far from uniform for all teams. While some nations revel in the tournament across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, others are counting the days until their departure.