Bert van Marwijk Says No Single Formula Guarantees World Cup Success
Many Dutch supporters still dream of Virgil van Dijk hoisting the World Cup trophy on 19 July. Former national coach Bert van Marwijk says no single factor can guarantee a world‑championship.
Opta analysis of the six World Cup winners from 2002 to 2022 finds no uniform recipe. The data show variation across defensive, offensive and situational metrics. The analysis also notes that luck, such as the decisive save by Iker Casillas in 2010, cannot be quantified.
Brazil (World Cup 2002), Italy (World Cup 2006), Spain (World Cup 2010) and Germany (World Cup 2014) ranked among the two best defensive sides of their tournaments. By contrast France (World Cup 2018) and Argentina (World Cup 2022) conceded six and eight goals respectively and were far from the top‑defending teams.
Almost every champion scored more than fourteen goals, yet Spain’s 2010 triumph came with only eight goals in seven matches. Penalties awarded, possession percentages, set‑piece conversion and extra‑time minutes also failed to produce a clear pattern.
Van Marwijk stresses that declaring the ambition to become world champions from day one is essential; he did so at his presentation. He recalls Frank de Boer’s 1998 observation that the Dutch lacked conviction, and he notes the 2010 scepticism over Gregory van der Wiel’s youth, Edwin van der Sar’s retirement, and the ageing partnership of John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen. He adds that pressure can boost performance if managed, a view echoed by former striker Klaas‑Jan Huntelaar, who says belief and effective use of chances are decisive.
Why the KNVB is turning every Dutch fan into a twelfth man at the World Cup
All World Cup winning squads between 2002 and 2022 had average ages between 26 and 29, and the Netherlands squad for the upcoming World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico averages 27. Ronald Koeman has been the national coach since 1 January 2023, matching the three‑year minimum tenure of the previous three World Cup‑winning coaches. Huntelaar argues that a longer‑serving coach provides an advantage, and Van Marwijk points to the large number of Premier League players in the Dutch pool and recent draws with Spain as reasons the title remains attainable.