Belgium holds 90% chance to reach World Cup knockout stage

After a goalless draw with Iran, Belgium sit third in World Cup Group G and now must avoid any slip against New Zealand; simulations give the Red Devils a 90.3 % probability of reaching the knockout stage, but only an 18.8 % chance of topping the group. Despite two very disappointing performances, the simulations still show Belgium with a strong outlook. The Red Devils have a 63.4 % probability of finishing second, a 10.3 % chance of ending third, and a 7.6 % likelihood of landing in last place. Egypt celebrated their first ever World Cup victory, a result that lifts them to a 100 % probability of advancing to the knockout round in the model. The Pharaons are also favoured to win Group G, with a 65.4 % chance of topping the standings.

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Iran retains a 56.3 % chance of keeping hopes alive for the next stage, according to the same calculations. New Zealand, by contrast, faces only a 10.3 % probability of progressing. Toby Alderweireld criticised the team's display, saying “Le principal problème, c'était le manque de qualité”. He made the comment in the post‑match interview following the Iran draw.

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With the next match against New Zealand looming, Belgium must secure a positive result to improve their slim odds of winning the group. A win would raise their chance of topping Group G above the current 18.8 % figure. Group G comprises Belgium, Iran, Egypt and New Zealand, as confirmed by the tournament draw. The probability figures were generated by Football Meets Data using a large number of simulations.